My prediction: Mubarak Stays
Here’s why:
In Tunesia, president ben Ali had done a great deal to anger the other parts of the ruling class through his eccentric governing behavior and by allowing his wife’s family to loot the country. When the chips were down, they did not back him. In Egypt, Mubarak has done a great deal to make his continued survival attractive to the other folks at the top of the totem pole. I believe that the key for his survival is retaining the support of the military – as long as the military backs him, he can weather the storm.
If the ruling elite loose their nerve, however, I predict they will find a way to move him aside for someone who is already at the top of the power structure. The implications of giving the Muslim Brotherhood a shot at taking even partial power in the government are so deeply unappealing to the power structure in Egypt that it will strenuously resist further change to the status quo even post-Mubarak. I believe this also means anyone hoping for possible new elections is out of luck. Bad mood in the country = bad time to give the opposition a shot at legitimacy.
But who knows – I could always be totally wrong.
Clearly, I was eventually proved wrong – and as it turns out, now owe my boss a steak dinner as a result. But, I would like to point to the fact that he ALMOST didn’t do it, and that it was ultimately the Army turning away from him that forced him out.
devinhayesellis said this on February 16, 2011 at 5:18 pm |